primary vote

[davidfcooper]

Last week I voted for Barak Obama by absentee ballot, which means my vote will not be counted except in a really close election. I will certainly support the Democratic nominee in November, but it is important that that person be the candidate who has the best chance of defeating the Republican nominee. I'm guessing that Senator Clinton's nomination will increase opposition turn out, and will likely attract fewer independent voters than Senator McCain who has demonstrated appeal to independents. Senator Obama OTOH not only appeals to independents but also to disaffected Republicans. Moreover, a Clinton presidency would likely have a 50 + 1 mandate (Karl Rove's strategy), which at a time when large numbers of evangelical voters are indicating that the economy and global warming are higher priority issues than abortion or Iraq would represent a blown opportunity at building a larger consensus for progressive change.

Polling from a month ago (I'd be interested in more recent results) indicate that Obama would win the popular vote vs. McCain and that Clinton would lose the popular vote to McCain (either Democrat would defeat Romney in a landslide), but in these polls Clinton would win Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Washington, Massachusettes and Minnesota vs. McCain, and Obama would lose these states to McCain. IOW, as in 2000 the winner of the popular vote could lose the election. Since those polls were taken Obama seems to have gained momentum; I wonder how those match ups look today? Update: for the popular vote Obama is still polling better than Clinton in a match up against McCain, at least according to CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, the Cook Political Report/RT Strategies and ABC/Washington Post Polls.