Stratfor on Israel vs. Hezbollah

http://www.stratfor.com/products/premium/read_article.php?id=269119

Stratfor reports: - [...] Israel is calling up its reserves. This is never a
symbolic gesture in Israel. All Israelis below middle age are in the
reserves and mobilization is costly in every sense of the word. If the
Israelis were planning a routine reprisal, they would not be mobilizing. But
they are, which means they are planning to do substantially more than
retributive airstrikes. The question is what their plan is.

Given the blockade and what appears to be the shape of the airstrikes, it
seems to us at the moment the Israelis are planning to go fairly deep into
Lebanon. The logical first step is a move to the Litani River in southern
Lebanon. But given the missile attacks on Haifa, they will go farther, not
only to attack launcher sites, but to get rid of weapons caches. This means
a move deep into the Bekaa Valley, the seat of Hezbollah power and the
location of plants and facilities. Such a penetration would leave Israeli
forces' left flank open, so a move into Bekaa would likely be accompanied by
attacks to the west. It would bring the Israelis close to Beirut again.

This leaves Israel's right flank exposed, and that exposure is to Syria. The
Israeli doctrine is that leaving Syrian airpower intact while operating in
Lebanon is dangerous. Therefore, Israel must at least be considering using
its air force to attack Syrian facilities, unless it gets ironclad
assurances the Syrians will not intervene in any way. Conversations are
going on between Egypt and Syria, and we suspect this is the subject. But
Israel would not necessarily object to the opportunity of eliminating Syrian
air power as part of its operation, or if Syria chooses, going even further.

At the same time, Israel does not intend to get bogged down in Lebanon
again. It will want to go in, wreak havoc, withdraw. That means it will go
deeper and faster, and be more devastating, than if it were planning a
long-term occupation. It will go in to liquidate Hezbollah and then leave.
True, this is no final solution, but for the Israelis, there are no final
solutions.

Israeli forces are already in Lebanon. Its special forces are inside
identifying targets for airstrikes. We expect numerous air attacks over the
next 48 hours, as well as reports of firefights in southern Lebanon. We also
expect more rocket attacks on Israel.

It will take several days to mount a full invasion of Lebanon. We would not
expect major operations before the weekend at the earliest. If the rocket
attacks are taking place, however, Israel might send several brigades to the
Litani River almost immediately in order to move the rockets out of range of
Haifa. Therefore, we would expect a rapid operation in the next 24-48 hours
followed by a larger force later.

At this point, the only thing that can prevent this would be a major
intervention by Syria with real guarantees that it would restrain Hezbollah
and indications such operations are under way. Syria is the key to a
peaceful resolution. Syria must calculate the relative risks, and we expect
them to be unwilling to act decisively.

Therefore:

1. Israel cannot tolerate an insurgency on its northern frontier; if there
is one, it wants it farther north.

2. It cannot tolerate attacks on Haifa.

3. It cannot endure a crisis of confidence in its military

4. Hezbollah cannot back off of its engagement with Israel.

5. Syria can stop this, but the cost to it stopping it is higher than the
cost of letting it go on.

It would appear Israel will invade Lebanon. The global response will be
noisy. There will be no substantial international action against Israel.
Beirut's tourism and transportation industry, as well as its financial
sectors, are very much at risk.

Stratfor on Israel vs. Hezbollah

http://www.stratfor.com/products/premium/read_article.php?id=269119

Stratfor reports: - [...] Israel is calling up its reserves. This is never a
symbolic gesture in Israel. All Israelis below middle age are in the
reserves and mobilization is costly in every sense of the word. If the
Israelis were planning a routine reprisal, they would not be mobilizing. But
they are, which means they are planning to do substantially more than
retributive airstrikes. The question is what their plan is.

Given the blockade and what appears to be the shape of the airstrikes, it
seems to us at the moment the Israelis are planning to go fairly deep into
Lebanon. The logical first step is a move to the Litani River in southern
Lebanon. But given the missile attacks on Haifa, they will go farther, not
only to attack launcher sites, but to get rid of weapons caches. This means
a move deep into the Bekaa Valley, the seat of Hezbollah power and the
location of plants and facilities. Such a penetration would leave Israeli
forces' left flank open, so a move into Bekaa would likely be accompanied by
attacks to the west. It would bring the Israelis close to Beirut again.

This leaves Israel's right flank exposed, and that exposure is to Syria. The
Israeli doctrine is that leaving Syrian airpower intact while operating in
Lebanon is dangerous. Therefore, Israel must at least be considering using
its air force to attack Syrian facilities, unless it gets ironclad
assurances the Syrians will not intervene in any way. Conversations are
going on between Egypt and Syria, and we suspect this is the subject. But
Israel would not necessarily object to the opportunity of eliminating Syrian
air power as part of its operation, or if Syria chooses, going even further.

At the same time, Israel does not intend to get bogged down in Lebanon
again. It will want to go in, wreak havoc, withdraw. That means it will go
deeper and faster, and be more devastating, than if it were planning a
long-term occupation. It will go in to liquidate Hezbollah and then leave.
True, this is no final solution, but for the Israelis, there are no final
solutions.

Israeli forces are already in Lebanon. Its special forces are inside
identifying targets for airstrikes. We expect numerous air attacks over the
next 48 hours, as well as reports of firefights in southern Lebanon. We also
expect more rocket attacks on Israel.

It will take several days to mount a full invasion of Lebanon. We would not
expect major operations before the weekend at the earliest. If the rocket
attacks are taking place, however, Israel might send several brigades to the
Litani River almost immediately in order to move the rockets out of range of
Haifa. Therefore, we would expect a rapid operation in the next 24-48 hours
followed by a larger force later.

At this point, the only thing that can prevent this would be a major
intervention by Syria with real guarantees that it would restrain Hezbollah
and indications such operations are under way. Syria is the key to a
peaceful resolution. Syria must calculate the relative risks, and we expect
them to be unwilling to act decisively.

Therefore:

1. Israel cannot tolerate an insurgency on its northern frontier; if there
is one, it wants it farther north.

2. It cannot tolerate attacks on Haifa.

3. It cannot endure a crisis of confidence in its military

4. Hezbollah cannot back off of its engagement with Israel.

5. Syria can stop this, but the cost to it stopping it is higher than the
cost of letting it go on.

It would appear Israel will invade Lebanon. The global response will be
noisy. There will be no substantial international action against Israel.
Beirut's tourism and transportation industry, as well as its financial
sectors, are very much at risk.